ANALISIS DAMPAK MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP PERGERAKAN HARGA INDEKS LQ45
Abstract
ABSTRAK
Tujuan penelitian untuk menguji bagaimana faktor makroekonomi berpengaruh pada pergerakan harga indeks LQ-45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia yaitu suku bunga, inflasi, nilai tukar, harga emas dan harga minyak. Populasi penelitian merupakan perusahaan yang terdiri dari infrastruktur, telekomunikasi, transportasi, utilitas, ciclycal dan lainnya yang berada dalam indeks LQ45 pada periode 2018-2023. Sampel yang digunakan 45 perusahaan yang berada di dalam indeks LQ45. Analisis data menggunakan analisis Regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga, inflasi, dan harga minyak memberikan pengaruh positif pada indeks harga LQ-45, serta nilai tukar dan harga emas berpengaruh negatif terhadap indeks harga LQ-45. Implikasi hasil penelitian ini bagi investor adalah investor dapat menggunakan informasi tentang variabel makroekonomi ini untuk memprediksi pergerakan pasar saham dan mengoptimalkan portofolio mereka. Selain itu, karena harga minyak dan emas memengaruhi saham maka investor dapat mempertimbangkan instrumen lindung nilai (hedging) seperti komoditas atau reksadana terkait untuk menyeimbangkan portofolio.
ABSTRACT
This study examines how macroeconomic factors affect the price movement of the LQ-45 index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, gold prices, and oil prices. The study population consists of companies consisting of infrastructure, telecommunications, transportation, utilities, ciclycal and others that are in the LQ45 index in the 2018-2023 period. The sample used was 45 companies in the LQ45 index. Data analysis using multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the study show that interest rates, inflation, and oil prices have a positive effect on the LQ-45 price index, and exchange rates and gold prices have a negative effect on the LQ-45 price index. The implications of the results of this study for investors are that investors can use information about these macroeconomic variables to predict stock market movements and optimize their portfolios. In addition, because oil and gold prices affect stocks, investors can consider hedging instruments such as related commodities or mutual funds to balance the portfolio.
Keywords
References
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DOI: 10.34204/jiafe.v11i1.11352
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