FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KENAIKAN HARGA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) NASIONAL MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA DENGAN PENDEKATAN BAYES

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the factors that influence the increase in national Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices using the Bayes method and estimating parameters using the Bayesian approach. Estimating parameters in the Bayes method requires an approach with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to generate random samples from the posterior form, the posterior form resulting from multiplying the likelihood function with the conjugate prior. One of the MCMC algorithms used is the Side Gibbs algorithm. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the factors that influence the increase in cooking oil prices are International CPO Prices and Tax Rates. It can be seen from the parameters that do not contain zero values at the 5% and 95% percentiles and from Bayes estimation it is also found that for every increase of 1 The US$ international CPO price at a constant tax rate will cause an increase in the national CPO price of 0.0042 US$. Every 1 US$ increase in the tax rate at a constant international CPO price will cause an increase in the national CPO price of 0.0227 US$.