DAMPAK KENAIKAN HARGA MINYAK BUMI TERHADAP PERMINTAAN CPO UNTUK BIODIESEL DAN BEBERAPA ASPEK PADA INDUSTRI KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA

Abstract

ABSTRACT
Indonesia is the biggest palm oil producer and exporter in the world. In
2008, Indonesia contributed 34.3% of total palm oil world production and 84.6%
of production was exported as crude palm oil (CPO).
In the world’s market, the growth of palm oil consumption and import
were 9.66%/year and .34%/year. In supply side, palm oil production and export
increased 7.94%/year and 9.55%/year respectively. It reflected global excess
demand which influence palm oil price in world market, 1.69%/year. Demand for
Indonesian CPO also to fulfill the raw material for energy. This situation will
influence several aspects in Indonesian palm oil industry, in order to ensure the
availability of palm oil to fulfill national necessity for cooking oil industry and bio
diesel industry.
By using annual data 1979-2008 periods, an econometric approach was
applied in this study. The goal of this study is to analyze (a) the analyze the
correlation between world petroleum oil price with CPO world price, (b) the
analyze the effect of petroleum oil price toward domestic palm oil demand, (c) to
simulate the effect of petroleum oil price for 18,71% toward several aspects in
Indonesian palm oil industry
The findings of the study show that (a) since 2000 there was the strong
correlation between world petroleum oil price with CPO world price, that reflect
that CPO is used for raw material of bio diesel industry; (b) petroleum oil price
positively influenced domestic palm oil demand, and (c) the rise of world
petroleum oil price will affect the domestic cooking oil industry, i.e. the cooking
oil supply will decrease, and the cooking oil price will increase due to the lack of
CP O for cooking oil industry, while the bio diesel industry was start to grow.
Key words: crude palm oil, petroleum oil price, cooking oil, bio diesel